'Super 8' Takes Aim At Top Of Box Office Charts

6/9/2011 3:07 PM ET

(RTTNews) - With a 3,200-theater launch, a relatively small total for a big-budget release, "Super 8" looks to be the top box office draw this weekend but will have to compete for audiences with "X-Men: First Class." Also hitting theaters for the first time is family film "Judy Moody and the Not So Bummer Summer," though a big opening isn't anticipated for the Relativity release. Woody Allen's critically lauded romantic comedy "Midnight in Paris" is also getting a much wider release this weekend and should continue to do well with its niche adult audience.

From director J.J. Abrams, who last brought us the "Star Trek" reboot, "Super 8" is a mysterious new release that has been getting a significant marketing push from Paramount since the Super Bowl. With a substantial amount of critical support, "Super 8" looks to be set up for a very strong overall box office run, though that won't necessarily mean a gigantic opening total due to a little known cast, strong competition and an unfamiliar concept.
But Abrams is still a popular name in terms of bringing fresh action concepts to the big screen, which should give "Super 8" a sizeable audience willing to check it out. Having Steven Spielberg as the main producer also doesn't hurt and the movie itself even looks and feels like a Spielberg directorial effort. The biggest problem for "Super 8" is that it will have to compete with the very well accepted "X-Men: First Class," which will limit its overall appeal for its first weekend. Look for "Super 8" to haul in somewhere in the $35 to $40 million range this weekend and continue to post strong numbers in the following weeks.
Not having nearly the same level of commercial appeal is "Judy Moody," a 2,000-theater release from distributor Relativity. With a mainly unknown cast, a small release and almost no internet buzz, "Judy Moody" is going to have a difficult time competing for family audiences with "Kung Fu Panda 2," which continues to post fairly strong overall totals heading into its third weekend in theaters. Look for "Judy Moody" to finish with less than $10 million for the weekend and finish outside of the top five.
Getting expanded to 944 theaters in total and looking to appeal to adult audiences is "Midnight in Paris," the latest comedy from Woody Allen that stars Rachel McAdams and Owen Wilson. Though many of Allen's recent films have been ripped by critics, "Midnight in Paris" has been almost universally acclaimed and the limited release numbers have been fairly good so far. "Midnight in Paris" isn't likely to cross over to become a blockbuster, but a solid weekend in the $5 to $7 million range is likely, which could set it up for a decent limited release box office run over the next few weeks.
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